As the Russian's attempted invasion of Ukraine continues to reach the 3-week mark, it is important to look at what has happened to try and understand the potential ways forward. While nobody truly knows what Vladimir Putin is plotting and what firepower he’s budgeted for, this war has not gone to his initial plan. Ukraine has held fast in the face of overwhelming numbers and firepower, If Ukraine can continue to stand their ground, at this rate, it may lead to a stalemate on the Russian offensive.

Russian Troops

So far into the clash, Russia has lost upwards of 7000 troops with an additional 15000 to 21000 being injured and no longer able to fight. These figures are according to US and Ukrainian intelligence, who both admit that the current death toll is a conservative number, the true figure is likely much higher than the 7000-figure given.

Compared to Ukrainian troop losses at 1300 on last confirmation, it's not only impressive how Ukraine has managed to defend their home, but also gives some sense of hope that Ukraine may be able to hold out against Russia indefinitely.

Ground Vehicles

From the beginning of the invasion, it became apparent that Russian does not have the logistic capabilities to keep the invasion going without having close backup from their railroad system. There are many transport vehicles and transport teams to bring the necessities to the front line, but not nearly enough to cater to the size of the invasion fleet.

From this, we have seen higher numbers of abandoned and captured vehicles in the past 3 weeks than nearly any other war. From last confirmation, the figures are as follows.

  • Russia - Russia has lost a total of 1643 vehicles including numerous tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and mobile artillery. Of the 1643 vehicles lost from the Russian army 788 have been destroyed, 30 have been damaged, 221 have been abandoned and 604 have been captured by Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukraine - Ukraine has lost a total of 397 of which 160 have been destroyed, 5 have been damaged, 49 have been abandoned and 183 captured by Russian forces.

From this, it becomes plain to see that Ukrainian forces have already captured far more vehicles than they have lost. Another key element to take note of is the number of heavy duty vehicles that have been abandoned by Russian forces, this shows the lack in logistics as most of the abandoned vehicles have either got stuck or run out of fuel in an area where access to the fuel convoys is not available.

The Mental Game

Many field and military experts are pointing towards the possibility of a stalemate unlike you’d find in the tragamonedas Chile offers, where Russia can no longer afford to keep throwing resources at a failing invasion. When looking at the grand scheme and military might, Russia should by all means have been able to take over Kiev in the originally planned 3 days, but that has not been the case.

Largely due to poor planning and logistics capability of the Russian army, but as many experts have pointed out, the lack of motivation in the Russian infantry also plays a large role. From interviews conducted on surrendered Russian soldiers, it seems the majority of Russian infantry do not want to fight and are not sure why they are fighting to begin with.

This plays crucially into the mental game of this clash, the Ukrainians are defending their homes and freedom, whereas Russian soldiers are unable to justify fighting this war other than just being told to fight. The mental game is the opinion of experts with very little way to confirm how many soldiers actually want the war or not, but it does seem to hold some validity with how the invasion has gone until this point.